Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Student loan debt: the next time bomb?

    Today's graduates hit job market with more debt, fewer prospects
By Tony Mecia
 While consumers have paid down credit card balances and other debts in recent years, there's one area where they continue to borrow heavily: student loans.
    People affected by growing student loan debt are sounding alarms, and no wonder. Look at the numbers. According to data from the Federal Reserve:
    Student loan balances now stand at about $870 billion, an amount that has surpassed total credit card balances ($693 billion) and total auto loan balances ($730 billion).
    The average outstanding student loan balance per borrower is $23,300.
    About 37 million Americans owe money on student loans.
    Almost 10 percent of student loans -- $85 billion worth -- are delinquent, and the Feds fear that number may be understated.
     Student loan debt: the next time bomb? The Occupy Wall Street movement rallied last year around "immediate across-the-board forgiveness" of student debt. The National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys says student loans could be "the next debt bomb" for the U.S. economy. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke -- whose son expects to graduate from medical school with $400,000 in debt -- says student lending requires "careful oversight."
    The growing interest in student debt comes as delinquency and default rates are on the rise, and as total debt figures blow past big milestones. In 2011, student loan debt surpassed credit card debt. In 2012, total student loan debt is expected to hit $1 trillion for the first time.

Lots of student debt, few jobs
That explosion of student debt springs from economic trends: College costs are rising fast and college enrollment is hitting new highs, but students are graduating into a tough job market that makes student loan repayment even tougher. A study by the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University in 2011 showed that of college students who graduated in 2010, only 56 percent had found a job a year later.

"What you have is a whole generation of young people who are beginning their post-academic lives under a debt burden that Americans have never experienced in the past," says Alan Nasser, a political economy professor at Evergreen State College in Washington.

Although the concept of escalating debt that's tough to repay might sound similar to the subprime mortgage crisis that preceded the 2008 recession, experts say there's little chance that ballooning student loan debt will lead to a similar financial meltdown. That's because more than 85 percent of student loans are backed by the federal government, which has more power than private lenders to force repayment.

Instead, the effects of rising debt are felt individually, by borrowers overwhelmed with the amounts they're compelled to repay. Experts say high debt inhibits consumer spending, discourages further education and creates a disincentive to marry and start families.

"It prevents a lot of people from moving on with their futures, which is bad for productivity and bad for our economy," says Deanne Loonin, an attorney with the National Consumer Law Center, an advocacy group for low-income Americans.

The old trade-off: student debt for skills
Of course, the idea behind student loans is to allow students to pursue degrees, which typically lead to higher incomes. Because of that, many students view them as a worthwhile investment.
Student loan debt: the next time bomb?

Elisabeth Podair, 25, says it was "scary" to sign loan documents when she was an undergraduate at Queens University of Charlotte, N.C., but that it was the only option after winning scholarships to pay for much of her expenses at the small liberal arts school. When she graduated in 2009, she owed $20,000, but felt as though the university prepared her well for the workforce. She landed a job soon after graduation as an account executive at an advertising and marketing agency in Charlotte.

Podair has started paying down the balance to a mix of federal and private lenders. She says she'd prefer to have no debt, but that if she has to have some, educational debt is better to have compared with, say, a car loan, since the value of a car declines with age.

"I hope that the value of my education will only increase over time, and the amount I owe will only decrease over time," she says.

Podair says she owes less than many of her peers.

Nationally, two-thirds of bachelor's degree recipients take out loans to pay for college, according to the College Board. Of those who borrow, the median amount owed at graduation is $20,000. The top 10 percent of borrowers owed $44,500 or more. Graduate students typically borrow more than undergraduates.

For borrowers who are simply unable to pay, there's a complicating factor: College debt is difficult to erase -- more so than credit card debts or even gambling debts. For federally guaranteed loans, which account for more than 80 percent of all student lending, the balances are almost impossible to wipe away, even in bankruptcy. In addition, the government has collection powers unavailable to private lenders, such as intercepting tax refunds and even reducing Social Security benefits.

Students don't always understand loan terms
Experts say consumers need better understanding of the loans when they take them out, as well as their options if they're unable to repay them.

Young adults, for instance, might not realize the effects of carrying tens of thousands of dollars of loan debt.

"Young people, when they're 18 or 19, they're not thinking straight. They don't have much experience with debt," says Allen Carlson, president of the Howard Center for Family, Religion and Society, who has studied the effect of loan debt on families. "They hear what the education establishment tells them, which is, 'This is your ticket to a rich future.'"

The easy availability of student loans -- which are typically made irrespective of a borrower's credit or career choice -- result in a workforce that is "overeducated," Carlson says. So while skilled machinists are in short supply, "we probably have too many lawyers, too many art historians and too many sociologists," he says.

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Mortgages Paying on Time

     FEWER homeowners have been falling behind on their mortgage payments over the last two years, yet even with the improvement, a significant number still are delinquent or in foreclosure.
Related
    Being in such a predicament almost always proves costly for borrowers — both in terms of fees they will owe and the lower credit rating that will result.
      Mortgage delinquencies are “about halfway back to long-term prerecession levels,” said Jay Brinkmann, the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, in its fourth-quarter delinquency report, which was released last month. Some 7.58 percent of all residential loans were delinquent at the end of 2011, down from a 10 percent high in 2010 but well above the 5 percent prerecession average. All together, 12.63 percent — one in eight homeowners — were in trouble or in foreclosure at the end of the year, the association reported.
      Meanwhile a separate report last month, from the credit-reporting agency TransUnion, found that delinquency rates fell to 6.01 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 from 6.4 percent the same period the year before, though they rose slightly from the third quarter. Delinquencies of 60 days or more are expected to rise again in the first quarter of 2012, then decline the rest of the year, said David Blumberg, a TransUnion spokesman.
       With so many homeowners still pinched financially, it is crucial to understand and adhere to payment deadlines. In general, payments are due on the first of the month; many lenders, though, allow a 15-day grace period. That means “not written by, not posted by, but received by the servicer” on that day, said Michael McHugh, the president of Continental Home Loans in Melville, N.Y., and the president of the Empire State Mortgage Bankers Association. In scheduling automatic electronic payments, he advised, allow at least “five days’ leeway.”
      If the payment arrives even a day past the grace period,  your lender will very likely charge a late fee of  2 to 5 percent of the monthly payment, Mr. McHugh said. The late fee and timing are spelled out in mortgage documents. Some late fees may be waived, especially if you have a history of on-time payment.
     What is less often waived is the nick to the credit score. At 30 days tardy, a lender sends the credit bureaus a report, which is immediately transferred to your credit report, said Rod Griffin, the director of consumer and public education at Experian, another credit-reporting bureau. The black mark stays on the books seven years, he said, unless successfully challenged.
    “That late payment on a mortgage is going to have a significant negative effect on your credit score,” Mr. Griffin said.

Research last year by FICO, the provider of one of the most popular credit scores used by lenders, showed a 60- to 110-point drop in scores for being 30 days late, with the biggest reduction to those with the highest starting score of 780. It could take nine months to three years for the FICO score to recover fully, the research indicated.

VantageScore, a rival to FICO, estimates that the initial hit would be 60 to 100 points at 30 days delinquent and another 10 to 20 points at 60 days.

The key, the experts say, is to pay up before you are 30 days behind — or, failing that, to keep the payments no more than 120 days delinquent to avoid foreclosure proceedings and many extra costs, they say. “If they can stay between 90 and 120 days’ delinquency,” said Carol Yopp, the manager of the foreclosure program at the Long Island Housing Partnership, “they typically don’t get referred for foreclosure.”

Ms. Yopp, who also has 16 years’ experience as a mortgage underwriter, notes that many lenders will not take partial payments on mortgages; they will hold them in a “suspend account” until the borrower has the full amount. Still, she suggested homeowners make a partial payment anyway, so they’re not tempted to use the earmarked funds elsewhere.